Biden easily won Virginia in the 2020 presidential election. But things look a lot different this year.

While Virginia voters give Biden high marks on issues like climate change, abortion rights, and election integrity, it is Trump who comes out on top on issues like the economy, the Israel-Hamas war, and immigration.

Since the latter three issues routinely rank as some of voters’ biggest concerns, this has allowed Trump to poll competitively with Biden in Virginia.

The Fox News poll also showed Trump winning an unusually high 25% of Black voters, a figure that if realized would represent a modern record for a GOP presidential nominee in the state. And the survey showed no polling gap between voters aged 18 to 29 and those aged 65 years and older, with the candidates tied at 48% among both age groups.

What boosts Biden’s chances in the state?

In recent years, Democrats have solidified their support in Virginia’s most populous regions — from Northern Virginia to the Richmond metropolitan area and down to Hampton Roads. These areas contain scores of suburban communities where moderates from both parties, as well as independents, generally decide statewide elections.

Many of these voters tend to lean toward Biden, given their most recent voting trends.

In the Fox News poll, Biden led Trump among independents (45% to 43%) despite his diminished standing in the state. And Biden still retained robust majorities from college-educated voters (56%) and suburban women (58%) — blocs crucial for the president and down-ballot Democrats.

And in Northern Virginia — an electoral gold mine for Democrats — Trump remains unpopular. If turnout is high in the region, Trump must post massive numbers in rural Virginia and downstate exurbs to win.

Youngkin, in a recent Fox News interview, said the recent polling numbers meant Virginia would be “in play” in November.

But surveys closer to Labor Day will likely offer a clearer sense of the true nature of Virginia’s competitiveness, as many voters remain tuned out of the election — while some who are currently leaning toward third-party candidates may return to Biden’s fold.