Tensions with Iran spotlight Israel’s hidden nuclear arsenal

The Israeli Air Force’s fighter jets also play a role in the triad.

“Most believe specific IAF F-16 and F-15I Ra’am units have been assigned nuclear roles, with the latter fighters with their greater range and payload taking on added importance in the event of a long-distance war with Iran,” Roblin said.

Israel also boasts a sizable fleet of fifth-generation F-35I stealth jets, which are more capable of penetrating enemy air defenses to destroy strategic targets. It’s unclear if Israel’s F-35s can currently carry nuclear payloads.

Roblin noted the US Air Force only recently certified the F-35A for nuclear missions.

“Whether and how Israel has integrated nuclear arms into its customized F-35Is is another mystery box,” Roblin said. “Though I assume they will eventually assume a nuclear role if they haven’t already —–they are just so much more survivable for delivery of gravity or glide bombs.”

Israeli jets can also fire Popeye cruise missiles for standoff strikes. Israel has developed several air-launched ballistic missiles, some of which it used in a strike against central Iran in April. However, it’s unclear if Israel has air-launched ballistic missiles fitted with nuclear warheads.

“The main challenge for making these nuclear-capable is Israel’s capacity to miniaturize nuclear warheads vis-a-vis how heavy a warhead a given missile can carry,” Roblin said. “So, weapons that support bigger warheads are easier to convert.”

The IAF had nuclear gravity bombs as far back as 1973. Roblin pointed out that the US has “invested billions” in turning its B61 nuclear bombs into nuclear bunker busters. He suspects Israel could have undertaken a similar project.

“If Israel has more ambitious counterforce intentions for its air-based nukes, as in hoping they could be used to reliably destroy enemy nuclear missile silos and storage areas, then perhaps it has quietly developed its equivalent of the US’s new B61s, say based around the SPICE glide bomb kit,” Roblin said.

While extensive for a state Israel’s size, RANE’s Bohl highlighted some limitations of the Israeli triad, noting that Israel’s true strength lies in having Washington’s back.

“Israel’s limitations are in part its relatively limited arsenal and more constrained systems for deployment beyond the region,” Bohl said. “But within the region, Israel is certainly unsurpassed in its nuclear capabilities.”

“Given that the United States would serve as a nuclear umbrella for Israel for extra-regional threats, these limitations are certainly nothing that constrains Israel’s nuclear deterrent from its primary targets like Iran,” Bohl added.

The RANE analyst also noted that the US’s own forces represent a much more dangerous retaliation threat than Israel’s submarines for any country that considers striking Israel with nukes.

“The true second strike threat for Israel is the United States itself, which in a theoretical nuclear war scenario would almost certainly retaliate on Israel’s behalf should it ever suffer a first strike from a nuclear rival,” Bohl said. “This makes it so that a second strike capability is important in terms of deterrence for full-scale escalation from a power like Iran.”

“But from a strictly tactical perspective, it would be the United States that truly serves as Israel’s most effective second strike system.”