Staff Sgt. Jasmonet Holmes/US Air Force
Rajan Menon, a senior research scholar at Columbia University’s Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies, said that Russia is focused on the advanced weaponry coming from the West.
“I think their belief is that the more Western weaponry Ukraine has of all sorts, the more formidable its military will become,” he said.
Meanwhile, Tim Robinson, a military aviation specialist at the UK’s Royal Aeronautical Society, said Russia’s military likely believes the F-16s are “going to change the balance slightly against us.”
He said that once they arrive, Russian aircraft will probably have to be more cautious over Ukrainian territory. That means efforts to limit the jets’ effects now present a tempting prospect for Russia.
Ukraine has steps it can take
The potential impact of Russia’s efforts, and whether it manages to damage or destroy more air bases, is unclear.
F-16s need particular long and smooth runways, as well as protective hangars.
Matthew Savill, the director of military sciences at the UK’s Royal United Services Institute, said the answer from a Ukrainian perspective is obvious: more air defenses.
Ukraine has repeatedly asked for more air defenses from its allies, to better enable it to stop Russian drone and missile attacks.
US Air Force photo by Senior Airman Chanceler Nardone
Ukraine also says it is building underground stores and bunkers at its bases to prepare for the F-16s, and will disperse the jets to different bases to make it harder for Russia to detect them.
A Ukrainian Air Force official also said in June that Ukraine would store some of its F-16s abroad, so Russia cannot attack them.
It’s hard to take out airfields
Robinson said that destroying air bases is not an easy task.
“Is it very, very difficult to shut an air base completely down,” he said, especially given that they can be repaired.
To keep one out of commission, he said, you have to strike again and again — something that would be particularly hard if Ukraine uses more air defenses to protect bases where it has its F-16s.
Still, Ukraine’s F-16s being destroyed soon after they arrived — or not being able to be used because airfields are destroyed — would be a huge practical as well as symbolic blow for Ukraine.
Clarke said the past Russian airbase strikes indicate “incompetence” by Ukraine, but said that the “silver lining” was that it was a good lesson — one that has taken place before any F-16s arrive.
F-16s are expected to aid Ukraine
F-16s are not expected to be a game changer for Ukraine, but analysts say they should boost its fightback against Russia.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said this week that the F-16s will allow Ukraine “to effectively defend themselves.”
As well as replenishing aircraft Ukraine has lost so far, the F-16s are expected to work as defenses that can stop Russian drone and missile attacks.
They can also launch attacks on Russian weaponry and troops, though experts say Ukraine has not been promised enough to be able to use them in such an attacking role, and that it would be politically damaging to lose one because so few have been committed.
Robinson also previously told BI that the F-16s would “make Russian pilots there a little bit more kind of wary, a little bit more careful about what they’re going up against.”