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- Iran may conclude it needs to strike Israel with a larger salvo than it did in April.
- Iran and its allies are seeking retaliation after two killings as the risk of a regional war grows.
- “If Iran wants to maintain deterrence, it has to scale up its responses,” an expert said.
Iran has repeatedly vowed it will attack Israel in response to the assassination of Hamas’ political leader in Tehran on July 31. Its main proxy, Hezbollah in Lebanon, has also vowed to join Iran to avenge Israel’s killing of one of its most senior commanders, Fuad Shukr, in Beirut the day before.
If Iran and its allies want to show Israel the killings have a cost, they will likely try to catch Israel’s defenses off guard or to overwhelm them — suggesting an even larger and more dangerous confrontation than their April barrage.
The killing of Hamas’ Ismail Haniyeh was , and it’s increasingly possible that some Iran-backed militants could target US forces in the region during a large attack. On Monday, a rocket attack carried out by Iran-backed militias on Iraq’s Ain al Asad Airbase injured at least five American troops.
“The fact that the regime has openly declared US complicity in the assassination of Haniyeh means that they’re likely considering attacking US forces as well,” Azizi said.
How Israel would retaliate for any Iranian attack would likely depend on certain factors.
“If the coming Iranian attack causes Israeli casualties, they are likely to want to respond harshly,” Azizi said. “But they might be restrained by the US and other sides whose priority is avoiding an all-out regional war.”
On the other hand, Israel may not necessarily wait until Iran strikes.
“It is also possible for Israel to conduct preemptive strikes on Iran before Iran gets to attack,” Azizi said. “If Israel wanted to truly up the ante, it could strike Iranian refineries, which would cause a major crisis in Iran.”
“There is a chance that the IDF has already thought about these plans, especially since the new phase of hostilities began in April.”
Devine believes Israel’s response will depend on the “amount of damage and casualties” any Iranian attack ultimately causes.
“Iran did very little damage the first time, so it is a very low bar to clear,” Devine said. “If Iran is more aggressive than expected, or there is an accident, and there are significant civilian casualties, or Israel’s defenses come off looking inadequate, Israel’s response could be severe.”
An unprecedented Iranian attack could lead to an unprecedented Israeli response.
“Israel will likely try to retaliate more strongly than April 19, especially if they suffer casualties or a significant building is destroyed by Iran,” The Washington Institute’s Nadimi said.
“In that case, some of Iran’s nuclear sites will likely be targeted as well.”