Ukraine’s invasion of Russia is showing how good it is at hitting Putin’s weak spots

Ukraine targets symbols of Putin’s power

Some of Ukraine’s most notable triumphs in the war serve both a military and a psychological purpose.

In 2022 — and then again in 2023 — Ukraine launched devastating attacks on the Kerch Strait bridge which connects the occupied Crimea peninsula to mainland Russia.

The attacks destroyed parts of the 12-mile structure and led to authorities temporarily halting traffic on the bridge.

The bridge is an important military target for Ukraine as it enables Russia to transport troops and equipment to the peninsula.

But it’s also one of Putin’s pet projects and among the most famous symbols of his power.

The Russian president personally opened the bridge in 2018, four years after Russia annexed Crimea, driving a truck across it and boasting that it was an achievement that had eluded his Soviet forbears.

‘”The construction of the bridge was a key part of the propaganda shaping Putin’s image as a leader capable of completing grand projects and solidifying the annexation of Crimea,” said Alyukov. “Therefore, Ukraine’s attack on the bridge likely had both a military purpose and a political purpose to embarrass Putin and undermine his image domestically.”

The Kursk incursion similarly has both a symbolic and military purpose.

It undercuts Putin’s power and the basis of his authority but also serves to divert Russian troops away from the front line in Ukraine. The territory seized could be used as a bargaining chip in negotiations with Russia.

Other attacks, Alyukov explained, are more symbolic in their ambition.

Ukraine has launched a series of long-range drone attacks on Russia, targeting military sites and gas depots — but also Putin’s palatial private residences near Moscow and St Petersburg.

In May, satellite images showed that Russia had diverted several air defense systems to protect Putin’s residence in Lake Valdai, north of Moscow.

A Ukrainian drone attack in 2023 struck the Kremlin itself, the Moscow fortress complex that’s at the heart of Putin’s political power.

“Drone attacks near the Kremlin are purely political and symbolic—they put pressure on the Russian public by demonstrating that the Ukrainian military can reach the heart of Russia, thereby undermining the perception that Putin has full control over the situation,” said Alyukov.

Pro-Ukraine paramilitary groups have previously made more limited but still impactful raids over the Russian border.

Groups such as the Freedom of Russia Legion, which is made up of Russians opposed to Putin’s regime, have launched cross-border incursions in Belgorod and other parts of Russia bordering Ukraine.

The units typically cross the border, clash with Russian forces, and withdraw, and temporarily seize control of Russian villages before withdrawing.

The aim of the attacks, again, is to puncture Putin’s image as a strongman protector of Russia and bring the reality of the war home to ordinary Russians, said Alyukov.

Brian Whitmore, an expert on Russian politics at the University of Texas-Arlington and host of the ‘Power Vertical’ podcast, in an article for the Atlantic Council in August, said Putin’s power is based on projecting strength.

“Its internal logic, processes, incentive structure, and behavior resemble those of a mafia family,” he wrote of Putin’s inner circle. “And the most destabilizing moment for a crime syndicate is when the mafia boss looks weak.”

In comments last week on Telegram, Russian military blogger Vladislav Shurygin said Ukraine’s strategy was taking a psychological toll on Russia.

Ukraine, he said, was managing “to exhaust Russia with continuous unexpected strikes on sensitive infrastructure and the civilian population, provoking discontent, disappointment, and apathy.”

Ukraine must maintain its momentum

In an authoritarian political system like Russia’s, where Putin holds unchallenged power, attacks on the leaders’ image and authority can be uniquely damaging.

After decades of increasingly repressive rule under Putin, many Russians have become politically detached, said a January survey by the Chicago Council on Public Affairs. Many don’t actively support the war in Ukraine, viewing it as a conflict happening far away, with their knowledge of the conflict shaped by state propaganda, it said.

In exchange for their security, Russians have ceded increasing amounts of power to Putin, said Alyukov. But attacks such as the Kursk incursion have the potential to disrupt that balance — if Ukraine can keep up the pressure.

“Whether this balance will ultimately be shattered depends on the scale and duration of Ukrainian attacks and the nature of Russia’s response,” said Alyukov.