Here are 3 ways analysts say China could blockade Taiwan

A quarantine or, taking things a step further, blockade of Taiwan has long been discussed by Chinese military planners and various officials and experts as an option for China to achieve unification with Taiwan. A blockade is a high-risk operation, though, raising the chance of a broader, longer conflict, as it is an act of war.

In recent years, there has been growing concern that China will pursue non-peaceful means to achieve unification as Beijing engages in aggression at sea and in the air around Taiwan.

This trend has been well documented by the US Department of Defense, which noted in its 2023 report on China’s military that the year prior saw “amplified” pressure from China against Taiwan, including what it identified as “increased provocative and destabilizing actions in and around the Taiwan Strait,” as well as significant acts of political, economic, and military coercion.

Cross-strait tensions spiked, though, in January 2024 when Taiwan elected its new president, Lai Ching-te, much to Beijing’s disapproval.

Lai’s win prompted China to brand him a separatist and pursue a series of actions aimed at punishing Taiwan, including military actions around its most vulnerable islands near mainland China and more massive drills that showed how easily China could surround Taiwan and potentially pull off something like a blockade.

And the third scenario, a limited blockade, is a variation of the second but excludes sea mining. By avoiding laying mines and kinetic attacks, Beijing would likely be in control of how the conflict escalates and would be able to maintain a more restrained narrative on the global stage, possibly raising questions about whether intervention from the US is warranted at all.

In this situation, China would potentially be relying primarily on the force presence provided by its navy and air force. This option carries less risk, but the potential for escalation is there regardless.

For Taiwan, all three scenarios represent serious challenges. Its economy is heavily reliant on trade, with the new CSIS report noting that its imports and exports were 61 and 69 percent, respectively, of its GDP in 2022. It is believed to have only a few months of energy and food stockpiles to sustain itself.

It’s unclear if Taiwan’s military could stand against major Chinese military operations, especially if the US and its allies don’t come to its aid. And in that situation, it is also unclear how long Taiwan would hold out, how long it would resist.

For China, there are plenty of unknowns, too, though.

Per the CSIS report, “the success or failure of a Chinese blockade depends on many factors,” including “Taiwan’s resilience and willingness to defend itself and the extent to which Washington and its allies intervene.” It says these are “critical.”

Other considerations are how well-prepared the People’s Liberation Army is, how Beijing controls its front-line forces, and how it manages escalation. The CSIS experts say these “are important not only to a successful blockade but also to ensure that a blockade does not unintentionally escalate into an invasion or war.”