Russia is barely using one of its best weapons against Ukrainian forces in Kursk because it’s scared to hit itself, war expert says

Mark Cancian, a retired Marine Corps colonel and a senior advisor at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said Russia hasn’t been seen heavily using air power or glide bombs against Ukrainian forces in Kursk.

“I think that’s a reflection of a weak air control system,” he said.

While the US and NATO “have very sophisticated mechanisms” and a “very elaborate, well-trained system” between aircraft and a control center to ensure they don’t hit anything friendly, that’s not the case for Russia.

The US is “pretty good at it. The Russians are not,” Cancian said.

“The Russians are hamstrung in one way, in the sense that they can’t drop these fab gliding bombs in Kursk as they have done in parts of Ukraine, especially in the eastern front, because obviously, it’s their own territory,” said Rajan Menon, a senior research scholar at Columbia University’s Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies.

“They’ll get a lot of people killed. Civilians.”

George Barros, a Russian military expert at the US-based Institute for the Study of War, told BI that Russia is so far not using the bombs in Kursk “at scale.”

Russia’s attacks in Ukraine, Barros said, “completely obliterate entire neighborhoods and towns over the span of just days.”

“The Russians decisively are not doing that in Kursk,” he added.

But as Ukraine continues its incursion, Russia’s risk calculations may change.

Russia has dropped bombs on its territory and destroyed its own weaponry since launching its invasion of Ukraine. This includes shooting down its own fighter jets.

But these were relatively isolated incidents rather than something that was happening as a result of a new strategy, such as using glide bombs in Kursk.

Barros said Russia was afraid of the “political considerations” that would come with targeting its own territory.

Meanwhile, Ukraine has started to use glide bombs against Russia in Kursk.

Zelenskyy said the incursion aims to create a “buffer zone” to minimize Russia’s ability to harm Ukraine.

However, warfare analysts also told BI that Ukraine likely wanted to stretch Russia’s forces and give fresh motivation to its troops and allies.

Barros said it’s not clear how the fast-moving operation will end. But he said that so far, it’s been a positive for Ukraine after months of grinding warfare with little territory changing hands.

Ukrainians, he said, “are no longer stuck in the rut where they no longer have the initiative.”

“It is now no longer the Ukrainians lying on their back for nine-plus months at a time simply trying their best to triage,” he said.