Lipstick sales and strippers’ tips: 6 weird indicators a recession could be coming

Dating app usage

When people’s finances are flourishing, they often engage in romance via in-person activities, going out for dinner and drinks with potential partners who they’ve met out and about while spending their money, Kissick said.

But when a recession looms, dating apps may see a surplus of users and an uptick in activity as people increasingly rely on the internet to meet new people.

“Dining out is another elastic good and one of the first things to go,” Kissick said. “When we’re out in public less often, we’re less likely to meet our soulmate, so we turn to dating apps.”

The New York Times reported in 2009 that online matchmakers were seeing a surge in interest even amid the drudge of the 2008 financial crisis.

Online dating is an inexpensive way to meet people, and unemployed people tend to have more time on their hands, the outlet reported at the time.

Business disputes

Trouble in middle-market paradise may also be a recession indicator, said Michael Platner, a corporate finance attorney and strategist at Lewis Brisbois.

Platner pointed to an uptick in private company insolvencies, partner fights, and business disputes as common recession harbingers. Difficult financial times often require business owners to take decisive action, which can reveal a partner or executive who isn’t able to handle the new pressures, extra hours, or less cash, he said.

“In hard times, it’s not uncommon for simmering partner issues to come to the top and for one partner to blame the other for not pulling their weight,” he told BI.

Law firms are perhaps especially primed to look for business disputes. The International Bar Association wrote last year that “issues can arise or intensify in regard” to a company’s workforce during difficult economic times.

Corporate bankruptcies, meanwhile, jumped by 30% from 2022 to 2023, Reuters reported last year.

Men’s underwear

The Men’s Underwear Index posits that a decline in men’s underwear sales indicates budget-tightening on non-visible essentials, potentially pointing to a recession, Earle told BI.

Made famous by former Federal Reserve Chair Alan Greenspan, the theory suggests men stop buying new underwear during difficult financial times because it’s a garment most people won’t actually see on a day-to-day basis.

The underwear indicator is far from foolproof but has proven true in some past recessions. Men’s underwear sales fell in 2008 and 2009, Business Insider previously reported, as well as during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Pawn shop boom

An increase in pawn shop activity can suggest financial strain, as the stores offer desperate people a chance to make some quick cash, Earle said.

Inventory at pawn shops typically balloons during difficult times while sales dip. USA Today reported in March that pawn shops were witnessing a “glut” of inventory, indicating people don’t have much cash on hand.

Similarly, rising sales at dollar stores or increased activity at secondhand stores are also signs that consumers are cutting back, Earle said.

Back in 1990, the Los Angeles Times reported that pawnbrokers are traditionally a trustworthy recession predictor. During some historical recessions and depressions, lines have formed outside pawn shops as people seek out loans.