Armed Forces of the Philippines via AP, File
A month later, China’s largest coastguard vessel dropped anchor in the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone, which the Philippines described as an act of “intimidation.”
And as recently as last week, Philippine Coast Guard spokesperson Jay Tarriela said China had deployed 40 vessels to block its delivery of supplies to soldiers stationed in Sabina Shoal.
Meanwhile, in an X post on Saturday, Tarriela said that a Chinese Coast Guard vessel had rammed and collided three times with the BRP Teresa Magbanua, damaging the ship.
Outnumbered and outgunned
Since late last month, the Teresa Magbanua has been outnumbered by over 50 Chinese ships, including three Chinese Coast Guard vessels, two People’s Liberation Army Navy ships, one Chinese hospital vessel, one research ship, and 47 Chinese maritime militia vessels, according to The Daily Tribute.
But Trinidad told the outlet that, for now, sending further naval assets remains unlikely.
The BRP Teresa Magbanua “was deployed alone; we are watching it because there are reports of crushed corals being piled up there,” he said.
The US Department of State has condemned what it describes as China’s “dangerous” and “escalatory” actions against “lawful” Philippine maritime operations in the vicinity of Sabina Shoal.
China’s coast guard, meanwhile, said a Philippine ship “illegally” entered Sabina Shoal on Saturday and “deliberately” crashed into a Chinese ship that was enforcing maritime rights under a routine operation.
“We once again warn the Philippines to face reality and give up illusions,” Liu Dejun, a spokesperson for the China Coast Guard, said.
“Withdrawing the ship immediately on its own is the only correct way,” Liu added.
Exhausting rivals and testing the US
According to Sari Arho Havrén, an associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute who specializes in China’s foreign relations, China’s provocations are meant to “exhaust” neighboring countries into accepting its claims over contested waters.
(Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei, and Taiwan also lay claim to parts of the South China Sea.)
“China wants to change the status quo by force — exhaust the countries to give in to their claims,” he told BI in June.
Collin Koh, a senior fellow at the Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies at Singapore’s Nanyang Technological University, meanwhile, said China wants to test how far the US will support one of its allies in the region.
“China is deliberately escalating the situation, with a likely intention to test how far Washington would support Manila,” Koh told CNN last week.
Under a defense treaty signed in 1951, the US is supposed to come to the aid of the Philippines if an armed attack occurs on its forces.
Adm. Samuel Paparo, head of the US Indo-Pacific Command, seemed to suggest that some limited support could be forthcoming. Speaking at a conference last week, he said that the “escort of one vessel to the other is an entirely reasonable option within our Mutual Defense Treaty.”
Alexander Lopez, a Philippine National Maritime Council spokesman, meanwhile, called for a review of the treaty last week, saying it needed to be adapted to new security challenges in Philippine waters.
Since 1951, “the strategic landscape has changed so much. So, maybe it’s high time now to maybe review,” he said.