The battle of Kursk hinges on the Russian railroad

However, other experts say that the Russian railway system has enough depth to handle disruptions (see this map of the rail infrastructure around Kursk). “Ukraine’s incursion may force Russia to reassign military logistics routes to the Kharkiv front through neighboring regions,” Callum Fraser, a Russia expert at Britain’s Royal United Services Institute think tank, told Business Insider. “This will lengthen the time it takes to supply material from the Leningrad and Moscow military districts, but this will unlikely be a significant extension.”

However, Ukraine has captured data about the Russian railway system, which will make it easier to disrupt operations, Fraser noted. “Russia’s digitization of its railway infrastructure, including aspects such as its integrated infrastructure management system, mean that Ukraine has been able to access data of arms shipments from a captured railway station. There may be more weaknesses within this system that Ukraine could exploit.”

With Ukraine claiming to control 500 square miles of Russian territory around Kursk, it now has what is essentially a forward base inside Russia from which to launch rockets and drones at targets deeper in the Russian interior. In particular, US-made ATACMS guided artillery rockets could hit key facilities such as airfields, supply depots  — and railroad bridges. The Kursk region has nearly a thousand rivers and streams.

Ukrainian aircraft have already destroyed several bridges across the Seym River east of the city of Kursk. However, the Biden administration has balked at giving Ukraine permission to launch long-range ATACMS missiles at targets in Russian beyond the Ukraine-Russia border. Barros believes that Ukraine could seriously disrupt Russian rail traffic and logistics if the US would lift those restrictions.

“Russia’s rail network in Bryansk, Kursk, Oryol, Belgorod, and Voronezh oblasts have some natural bottlenecks where those rail lines go over bridges to cross rivers,” Barros said. “It would be great if, for example, Ukrainian forces could degrade Russian forces’ ability to use rail in this sector by using ATACMS to destroy these rail bridges.”

Michael Peck is a defense writer whose work has appeared in Forbes, Defense News, Foreign Policy magazine, and other publications. He holds an MA in political science from Rutgers Univ. Follow him on Twitter and LinkedIn.