Apple’s China rival Huawei just upstaged the iPhone 16 launch

It shows how confident Huawei is in taking on Apple in the smartphone game as the Silicon Valley firm faces a tricky period in its most important international market.

For some time now, Apple has anxiously been watching iPhone sales tumble in China. Data from research firm Counterpoint, for instance, shows that iPhone sales dropped 19.1% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2024 and a further 5.7% in the second quarter.

It seems that Huawei has gained a lot of that lost market share. The Chinese smartphone maker saw a huge 69.7% jump in sales in the first three months of the year and another 44.5% jump in the next three months.

Jamie MacEwan, senior research analyst at Enders Analysis, told Business Insider that despite the “eye-catching” Mate XT targeting a “fairly small niche at the very top of the price range,” it’s a sign of “the return in force of Huawei.”

The company has faced years of setbacks following US export controls that limited its access to key components.

However, it stunned the tech world in August 2023 by releasing the Mate 60 Pro, a smartphone with an advanced chipset sourced from Chinese chip firm SMIC.

“The next flagship Mate refresh will have a bigger market impact,” MacEwan added.

Apple, for its part, will be betting on its new suite of generative AI features — dubbed Apple Intelligence — to trigger an upgrade cycle among consumers raring to try out the technology.

Gene Munster, managing partner at Deepwater Asset Management, thinks “AI will change everything including iPhone growth rates for the next couple of years.” Apple did its best to make the case for that during its “Glowtime” event on Monday, with Apple Intelligence receiving notable airtime.

Whether AI will drive an upgrade cycle or not remains to be seen. What seems to be a big risk for Apple in the face of Huawei’s threat, however, is that its buzzy new AI features won’t get a China rollout until 2025.

For this reason, Richard Windsor — an equity research analyst and founder of research firm Radio Free Mobile — thinks that the Huawei Mate XT will “probably sell very well,” especially due to the long wait for Chinese consumers to get their hands on Apple Intelligence.

“Apple’s number one selling point for 2024 is not relevant in the market where this battle will be fought,” Windsor told Business Insider. “Apple is on the back foot in China and, I suspect, likely to remain there.”

Apple does seem willing to experiment with the iPhone’s form factor. A report from The Information in February said Apple was building two prototypes of horizontal folding “clamshell” phones, though we don’t expect them to enter mass production until at least 2026.

But in the meantime, iPhones without AI could prove to be a tougher sell in China in the face of stiff competition.

“What will be difficult for Apple in China is countering Huawei’s momentum and convincing loyal Apple users to upgrade while China’s economy is still struggling with lower growth,” MacEwan said.

Expect Huawei to make the most of the moment.