A top poll showing Trump narrowly ahead in Iowa is a warning sign for his campaign

Meanwhile, Harris has clearly changed the race.

National polling mirrors what the Iowa survey found regarding an explosion of enthusiasm among the Democratic base. This is one of the main reasons that Trump’s massive lead is now trending closer to his 2020 margin. The Iowa poll found that Iowans under age 45 are now 10 points more likely to vote, while voters with a college degree are nine points more likely to vote and those who live in cities are now six points more likely to vote.

“This poll may be catching newly energized voters who thought they would sit out the election at the time our June poll was taken,” pollster J. Ann Selzer told The Register.

Trump’s slim Iowa lead could point to problems in more competitive states

Trump is still heavily favored to prevail in Iowa. Election forecaster Nate Silver’s model gives the former president overwhelming odds to carry its six electoral votes. After all, Democrats control just one of the statewide offices.

Still, the poll shows why the intense focus on the seven swing states can sometimes be detrimental. Look no further than former independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the longtime Democrat who endorsed Trump and abandoned his third-party run.

Kennedy is fighting to get off the ballot in swing states, but he missed the deadline to remove himself from the Iowa ballot.

The Iowa poll found that six percent of voters still back Kennedy, a decrease from June but still a number that could cause headaches. It’s also not certain that Kennedy will get his wish to be taken off the ballot in every swing state, as Wisconsin officials and Michigan’s highest court have rejected his efforts.

An equally intriguing poll of Alaska, a state that is notoriously difficult to survey, showed Trump with only a five-percentage point lead there — despite carrying Alaska by just over ten points in 2020. Thanks to at-large Rep. Mary Peltola, there are actually more Democrats in Alaska’s congressional delegation than Iowa’s, even though a Democratic presidential nominee has only carried Alaska once (Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964) since it was admitted to the union.

It’s far more likely that the Iowa survey illustrates Trump’s struggles elsewhere.

The poll found that Harris performs best with voters who live in the suburbs and those with a college degree, two demographics where Trump has long had problems.

The good news for Trump is that the Iowa poll shows he’s doing well among rural voters and those without a college degree, two groups that fueled his 2016 victory over former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.

Trump and Iowa Republicans have relied heavily on working-class voters to make the state more red.

And working-class voters hold considerable sway in key states like Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. If Trump hopes to regain the White House, he’ll need to make sure his gains among the working class outweigh his losses among women.