Israel’s Iron Dome missile defense system almost didn’t get built

Israeli missile defense also evolved as threats changed. Originally, there was the Arrow missile system to intercept ballistic missiles. “The system achieved its first successful interception of a ballistic missile in 1990, marking a significant technical milestone,” RUSI noted. “Despite successful tests, the Arrow project continued to face challenges, including technical issues, budget overruns and delays.”

But then the rise of Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon meant Israel was threatened by short-range rockets and artillery that the high-altitude Arrow wasn’t designed to intercept. By 2011, Israel fielded Iron Dome, which has proven mostly — though not totally — successful in identifying and intercepting rockets before they hit populated areas.

But some still insisted that the best defense was a good offense, meaning some kind of control of the terrain from which rockets were fired or destruction of the adversary’s ability to fire them. “Critics pointed out that while Iron Dome effectively mitigated the immediate threat of rocket attacks, it did not address the root causes of the conflict nor provide a long-term solution to the security challenges facing Israel,” Kaushal and Kochav wrote. “Ultimately, an argument that air and missile defenses introduced a Maginot mentality within the force persistently came to the fore,” in a reference to the French defensive lines that Nazi armies bypassed at the start of World War II

From the 1960s to the 1980s, missile defense was often viewed as unfeasible, a quixotic attempt to essentially hit a bullet with another bullet. But technology has progressed to the point where missile defense is now seen as an indispensable capability. Israel’s missile defense system faced its most difficult test in April, when Iran launched hundreds of missiles and drones at Israel. The IDF claimed around 99% were intercepted. But Iran had telegraphed an attack was coming, so Israel had time to prepare. Forces from multiple nations, including the US, Britain and Jordan, also helped intercept the Iranian attack.

Dozens of nations operate Patriot, S-300 and other air defense weapons capable of shooting down missiles, aircraft and large drones. In particular, Ukraine has amassed vast experience at intercepting Russian missiles, including hypersonic missiles that Russia claimed were unstoppable.

Missile defense will always be difficult, not least because it is cheaper for an adversary to build more offensive missiles than it is for the defender to intercept them all. Integrated air and missile programs “are uniquely susceptible to delays and cost overruns given the inherent complexity of the challenges they meet,” Kaushal and Kochav warned. This problem becomes worse when missile defenses like Israel’s have to cope with multiple threats, including ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, drones and artillery rockets.

Ultimately, the virtue of missile defense may be that it is the least bad alternative. “The issue with counterarguments about the cost of air defense, then, is not that they are categorically wrong, but rather that in many cases there are few alternatives other than a politically unsustainable doctrine of preemption, particularly when a country lacks strategic depth,” Kaushal and Kochav wrote.

Michael Peck is a defense writer whose work has appeared in Forbes, Defense News, Foreign Policy magazine, and other publications. He holds an MA in political science from Rutgers Univ. Follow him on Twitter and LinkedIn.