Why China would want to launch an intercontinental ballistic missile out into the Pacific

China has conducted several ICBM tests in interior desert locations as its missile arsenal has grown, but Wednesday’s test was different, providing China with something the other tests couldn’t.

Tianran Xu, an analyst for Open Nuclear Network, told Business Insider, that “if you launch towards the Pacific, that’s the most realistic scenario because you can see how the rocket performs in completely realistic conditions.”

He said that this kind of testing likely isn’t indispensable, but “it does have the advantage of being completely realistic.”

China has long tested missiles out in the desert, but as Decker Eveleth, a researcher at the Center for Naval Analyses, noted in a series of social media posts, “the problem is that this forces you to use a lofted trajectory” because the “distance from the ICBM test site to the target ranges is around 2000-3000 kilometers.”

“That means, if the PLARF wanted to test a depressed trajectory, they’re going to need to find another place to test their ICBMs,” he said, referring to a lower, longer flight path.

Chinese military analysts arrived at similar conclusions. Song Zhongping, a retired PLARF officer and commentator, told the state-run China Daily that “though China’s intercontinental ballistic missiles have good reliability and strong power, we need a certain number of full-range tests to check their operational readiness.”

The US notably conducts ICBM readiness tests regularly by launching Minuteman III ICBMs into the Pacific. These tests are fairly routine, unlike the Chinese test, which was the first such test since a DF-5 test in 1980.

Tianran said that China’s interior missile tests likely have given China sufficient confidence in the capabilities of its weapons, but the test in the Pacific was a rare opportunity to mimic what a real launch would look like, including logistics, transportation, the skills of missile crews, and launching from atypical sites.

“Launching a missile is complicated and there are a variety of tasks that if you mess it up, that missile is going to miss the target,” Eveleth said. “By doing it out at Hainan and launching from a potentially unfamiliar launch location the missile crew may be unfamiliar with you can identify potential pitfalls in the process.”

China’s ICBM test in the Pacific also comes as the country flexes its muscles, conducting joint naval drills with Russia that the Russian leader characterized as a challenge to the US-led world order, bullying neighboring nations, and testing boundaries.

China has faced repeated criticism for engaging in unsafe intercepts of American aircraft and those of its allies, airspace violations and breaches of territorial waters, and aggressive clashes at sea in contested waterways while also continuing to put increasing pressure on Taiwan.

Beijing has likewise expressed frustration with the US military’s presence in the region, including the indefinite deployment of a new missile system in the Philippines and a potential future one to Japan, among other things.

A spokesperson for the Chinese Foreign Ministry recently accused the US, through its moves, of heightening an “arms race” and exacerbating “regional tensions” related to the deployment. China has also recently complained about transits by the US and its allies and partners through the Taiwan Strait.

Despite the persistent tensions in the Indo-Pacific region, the Chinese military stated that its ICBM test was “not directed against any country or target.” It didn’t say whether it plans to repeat this kind of test in the future.