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In a Sunday intelligence update, Britain’s defense ministry said it is “highly likely” that the Ukrainian attacks “will force further dispersals in the Russian logistics chain for fear of additional strikes, increasing the burden on an already stretched system.”
Conflict analysts at the Institute for the Study of War think tank offered a similar assessment after a Ukrainian attack in mid-September on a Russian ammunition depot in the Tver region.
The analysts said repeated strikes on Russian ammunition depots that cause extensive damage may force Moscow’s military command to disperse its support and logistics systems to make them less vulnerable to Ukrainian attacks.
Russia’s inability to repel long-range Ukrainian attacks is nothing new, though. Moscow has struggled to do so throughout the war.
For months, Ukraine has managed to successfully target key military and energy facilities inside Russia. Kyiv has relied heavily on locally produced drones to wage this campaign because it is restricted from using Western-provided missiles to strike Russian territory.
Ukrainian officials have long lobbied to get the West to drop these restrictions, arguing that it would better allow them to degrade Russia’s military capabilities.