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Even if Trump loses, he could still exert “baleful” influence on US politics and get in the way of policy initiatives through his network of supporters, Giles said, pointing to Republicans blocking aid to Ukraine earlier this year.
Friedman of Defense Priorities struck a more positive tone, saying he doesn’t believe Trump is “seriously” considering withdrawing US commitment to the alliance.
The “big question,” Friedman says, is whether Trump, if elected, would behave like he did during his first term, which he said was “more bark than bite.”
Meanwhile, Prakash said that ongoing geopolitical flashpoints and tensions around the world could actually result in Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris being markedly similar US presidents on the world stage.
Prakash cited the ongoing territorial disputes in the South China Sea between the Philippines, a US ally, and China as likely the “single greatest” flash point facing the US right now.
If Harris “feels that NATO doesn’t connect with that in its current form, then she may also raise objections to NATO,” he said. “So, it is not just Trump.”
Looking beyond Europe
NATO appears to be considering the possibility of a reduced US commitment to the alliance.
In April, Stoltenberg, the outgoing secretary-general, proposed shifting control of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group, which organizes the delivery of weapons to Ukraine, from the US to the alliance.
NATO also established the NATO Security Assistance and Training for Ukraine, or NSATU, in July, to coordinate the future supply of military aid and training for Kyiv, amid growing concern about a potential change in US leadership.
However, Rutte’s past statements and familiarity with Trump suggest he would try to keep the US in the fold.
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And in an op-ed for Dutch newspaper NRC in 2023, a year after Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Rutte stressed how different the first year of the war would have been without the “colossal” deployment of US material and resources.
According to Prakash, Rutte is “coming into the role from a certain outlook, and that outlook is essentially saying: ‘We need to stand with America.'”
Beyond the most immediate threat of Russia in Europe, NATO may also want to tackle the China threat, he said.
NATO’s deputy secretary-general, Mircea Geoană, told Euronews in July that China, as a direct enabler of Russia’s war in Ukraine, threatened the alliance’s security.
Shifting NATO away from Russia and toward other threats is going to be “perhaps the greatest challenge facing Mark Rutte,” Prakash said.
All in all, it’s likely to be a bumpy ride for NATO’s new chief.