Israel could launch a counterattack on Iran within days — but there’s a key reason Netanyahu has less to fear this time

A senior Israeli official told Axios that Israel’s security cabinet meeting did not decide how to respond to Iran’s missile attack on Tuesday night.

The source cited Israeli officials, who said they wanted to coordinate their plans with the US.

Another Iranian attack would need more munitions for the Israeli air force, defensive cooperation with US Central Command, and possibly other forms of operational support from the US, Israeli officials told Axios.

Potential for escalation

Should Israel choose to launch strikes, Doyle expects it to do more damage than those launched in April, and to potentially target Iran’s nuclear sites and senior Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps members.

“All of these are possible, but the United States here also has to play a very key role because the US has a lot of assets in the region,” he said, adding: “It could get sucked in as well.”

Voller said Iran’s capacity to retaliate is “limited,” especially after the strategic damage Israel inflicted on Hezbollah, a close Iranian ally, adding that Iran does not have the ability to launch ground invasion or even air raids on Israel.

That means “we may see continuous and intensifying missile attacks on Israeli security and civilian targets as a war of attrition,” or even Iranian attempts to hit Israeli and Jewish targets abroad.

Ameneh Mehvar, a Middle East regional specialist with Armed Conflict Location and Event Data, or ACLED, had a different take.

“I still don’t believe we are 100% destined for an open-front, full-scale war between Iran and Israel,” she said, adding: “Iran is well aware of Israel’s military and intelligence superiority and may decide to absorb Israel’s attacks.”

“However,” she said, “I don’t see any positive long-term outcomes for the region or the world if this escalation pushes Iran to cross the nuclear threshold in the future due to feeling even more vulnerable given recent development.”

Raleigh, who’s also of ACLED, said Iran might be banking on a strategy of “death by 1,000 cuts,” by inflicting costs on Israel through a three-front war that, in the long run, could be “devastating” for Israel.

“Ultimately,” Doyle said, “it’s really a failure of international diplomacy to not have de-escalated all of this much earlier with much more urgency, and that’s why we got ourselves into this very, very dangerous situation.”