Vitalii Nosach/Global Images Ukraine via Getty Images
In contrast, Davis said that Russia has “several hundred of some pretty advanced aircraft,” citing the SU-35S, a modern jet designed to hunt US stealth aircraft, the Su-30SM, a jet that made its maiden flight in 2012, and the MiG-31, a supersonic interceptor aircraft.
Many carry R-37M air-to-air missiles that have a longer range than Ukraine’s US-provided AIM-120 Advanced Medium-Range Air-to-Air Missiles.
Some of these jets have been seen in Ukraine, and some have reportedly been shot down.
All of them pose a threat to Ukraine’s F-16s, Davis said, along with Russia’s formidable batteries of surface-to-air missiles.
Those Russian jets, he added, “have missiles and radar that can reach out and attack the F-16s.”
“So that’s an issue, and that will remain an issue,” Davis said.
Ukraine’s new jets are old
Ukraine’s F-16s, which cost between $20 million and $70 million each, are of an older generation than many of the F-16s in service in other fleets, and many of its allies are now upgrading their planes to F-35s.
The Wall Street Journal reported in August that many of Ukraine’s F-16s “are secondhand and have decades of flying time already.”
Michael Bohnert, an air warfare expert at the RAND Corporation, described them to BI as “older airframes with not a lot of life left,” though he said that “doesn’t mean they’re bad.”
But he warned that “as planes get older, they do get more problems.”
US Air Force
But David warned that the F-16s are still at a disadvantage.
“The bottom line is you can give the F-16s the maximum capability for munitions, electronic warfare capabilities, they’re going to still be somewhat vulnerable to grounded defense and some of the most advanced fighters from Russia,” he said.
Aircraft roles are limited
The disadvantage Ukraine’s F-16s face is somewhat negated by the nature of the war and how aircraft are being used.
The deployment of air defenses by both Russia and Ukraine often keeps aircraft far from the front lines, making dogfights and air-to-air battles exceedingly unlikely.
REUTERS/Valentyn Ogirenko
Denmark, Norway, Belgium, and the Netherlands have pledged more than 85 F-16s to Ukraine, with an unspecified number delivered in August.
But Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in May that his country needed about 120 to 130 advanced fighter aircraft to challenge Russia in the air.
The jets also arrived much later than Ukraine wanted — which was shortly after the full-scale invasion began in 2022. Even before they’d arrived, air warfare experts told BI that they did not expect them to be a game changer, especially with their small initial numbers.
But they said the F-16s would help Ukraine defend itself from incoming drone and missile attacks, help to replenish lost aircraft numbers, and direct Russian missiles away from other targets.
They also described Ukraine getting its first F-16s as an early step in building up Ukraine’s air force for the long term — something that US officials have also said.
According to Davis: “Right now, we’re still in pretty early days of their employment.”
But, he said, the “bigger picture is more will be coming this year.”