What made this Russian fighter jet’s shockingly aggressive maneuvers near a US F-16 so dangerous

Intercepts are common practices for militaries around the world, and most are normal. US Navy P-8A Poseidon maritime patrol and reconnaissance aircraft crews, for example, previously told BI that they expect to be intercepted because it is a routine way for countries to observe and keep tabs on foreign militaries operating nearby.

But there are procedures. Aircrews involved have expectations for how these are supposed to play out.

Mike Torrealday, a retired US Air Force colonel who flew combat missions in the Middle East in the F-16, told BI that interceptor pilots typically want to arrive “probably within a mile or so and lined up with the intercepted platform’s line of flight” so that they can identify the aircraft and keep it within visual range as they close.

The intercepting aircraft are expected to maintain a safe distance to avoid a collision, and there are also rules that aircraft being intercepted are generally expected to follow.

US forces train to carry out “lawful” intercepts, per US military documents on air intercepts, “and to do so safely and professionally in accordance with international law, norms, and standards.” Rules on aircraft behavior in international airspaces, create “an understood behavior so that we mitigate the risk” of problems.

What the Su-35 pilot did was nothing of the sort. In the video, the Russian jet races past the F-16, flying in front of the US aircraft, seemingly shocking the pilot. It’s possible they may not have realized the Su-35 was making such a close pass or intended such an aggressive maneuver. Had the F-16 suddenly shifted to the left, it could’ve resulted in a collision.

The US emphasizes the rules in air-to-air encounters specifically to avoid an “unintended incident resulting from a dangerous air intercept” that “could spark an international crisis,” according to the US military.

September’s incident, had it gone sideways, could’ve raised the risk of escalation. There was a real risk of a collision or possibly even something worse. Had the F-16 pilot viewed the Su-35’s behavior as overly aggressive or threatening, there’s the danger of an escalatory reaction at a time when relations between the US and Russia are tremendously strained over the ongoing war in Ukraine. A number of things could have gone wrong.

There’s precedent for such a crisis, such as the Hainan Island incident between the US and China in 2001, during which an unsafe interception of a US Navy EP-3E Aries II signals intelligence aircraft damaged the American plane, forcing it to land in China, and left the Chinese J-8 aircraft destroyed and its pilot dead.