Kamala Harris’ tax plan for small businesses sounds like it will cost a lot of money — it won’t

Brett Theodos, a senior fellow at Urban Institute who specializes in small business loans, told BI that entrepreneurs would “love” to be able to deduct more of those expenses right away. Moving up the timeline would, he said, make many feel less strapped for cash from the very outset.

And there’s another potential upside, according to Garret Watson, a senior policy analyst at the nonpartisan Tax Foundation. Small businesses would likely benefit from getting the deduction more quickly because of inflation, he said.

Many entrepreneurs are psyched about the effort. Theodos struggled to think of a reason why they wouldn’t want this, and Buttle said that those he works with are overwhelmingly excited about the plan.

McCleneghan, of the Small Shop, said having access to a $50,000 tax deduction early on would have allowed her to do better long-term planning. With the expanded tax deduction, Oswald said she might not have had to divest retirement funds or take out lines of credit.

“Getting money in the hands of entrepreneurs sooner is going to allow them to hire, to get equipment, to get a space, to pay off some debt, to pay themselves,” Theodos said. “So it’s meaningful to allow them to accelerate the deduction of startup expenses.”

But while small business owners may jump at the opportunity for more early cash flow, where this money would come from is more unclear. McCleneghan herself acknowledged that the details seem hazy.

Despite the flashy numbers, the proposal likely wouldn’t have a significant impact on the federal budget.

Though $50,000 sounds like a big-ticket promise, the experts BI spoke to said Harris’ proposal actually wouldn’t make a big dent in the federal budget. The Tax Foundation, where Watson works, examined cost estimates from prior expansions and found that the proposal would cost about $24.5 billion over 10 years.

“Relative to the federal government’s budget and spending, it’s very small,” Watson said. “This $25 billion number is in the context of a tax plan for the Harris campaign that would raise about $5 trillion over 10 years. So you’re talking about orders of magnitude more money on the tax hike side.”

Should Congress ever pass the expanded tax deduction, all startups and small businesses would access the same amount of money — but the experts told BI that some would feel the impact more than others. Entrepreneurs with less initial cash flow would disproportionately benefit from the change, they said.

Buttle said it would help women and people of color who have a harder time accessing capital. The Pew Research study found 61% of small businesses are majority-owned by men and, as of 2021, 85% were majority-white owned.

“We’re talking about community businesses, micro-businesses, businesses where the founder doesn’t have as much net worth,” Theodos told BI. “Everybody can benefit from $45,000, but the question is, who is that making the critical difference for?”