China is menacing Taiwan with a drone swarm attack — and the US is playing catch-up

• China is menacing Taiwan with the threat of invasion.
• A military strike on the US ally could involve a vast drone attack.
• Taiwan and the US must boost the island’s capacity to fight drone swarms, say analysts.

In the early hours of a 2023, the Institute for Economics and Peace estimated that a Chinese blockade of Taiwan would result in a $2.7 trillion loss in world economic activity in the first year alone, equivalent to a 2.8% decline in global GDP.

Bloomberg’s modeling, meanwhile, estimates that a total blockade of Taiwan and Western sanctions on China could result in a 5% worldwide GDP decline, with US GDP falling by 3.3% and China’s by 8.9%. 

In the end, Kallenborn said, the ability to produce enough drones in sufficient numbers to be decisive will be key to how much devastation China can inflict.

“We’ve seen in Ukraine that major drone warfare requires major production capabilities to sustain the heavy losses,” he said.

“The US and Taiwan absolutely should be and are developing production capabilities, though no doubt more can be done.”