Ukraine is eroding Russia’s military advantage with strikes on its ammo depots

But Kastehelmi said that in the long run, Russia will “most likely” be able to adapt to Ukraine’s long-range strikes.

“The Russians will, of course, react and adapt — if they’re able to switch to a safer way of storing ammo, for example, by decentralizing their system, creating a heavy impact will be more difficult,” he said.

And if Ukraine wants to continue these strikes, it will have to produce long-range drones or missiles “relatively efficiently” and “with decent costs,” he said.

Even then, Russia may be able to ramp up its air-defense capabilities near such sites in a way that could put a dent in Ukraine’s long-range attacks.

“I doubt the Ukrainians are able to produce so many long-range missiles or drones that it could turn the tide of the war,” Kastehelmi added.