Iran’s attacks on Israel suggest ballistic missiles are an overhyped threat

It is not that conventional ballistic missiles aren’t lethal, especially the modern versions. The early gyroscopic guidance systems on the V-2 have been replaced by more accurate inertial guidance: a Minuteman ICBM has a reported CEP of about 130 feet, which is fine for a nuclear warhead but not for a precision strike on a small target. For advanced missile powers such as America and Russia, inertial guidance can be supplemented by other systems, such as GPS, and onboard radar linked to a map of the terrain. US-made ATACMS GPS-guided missiles, for example, have proven quite accurate in Ukraine.

Ironically, this can lead to what one expert has called the “precision paradox.” Accuracy doesn’t always equal effectiveness: if a smart bomb misses its target, then follow-on strikes to accomplish the mission can actually cause as much collateral damage as unguided weapons.

And therein lies the appeal of ballistic missiles for less technologically advanced nations and militant groups. Even if they’re not accurate, the mere threat of long-range missile bombardment might coerce or deter an adversary. With an estimated 3,000 ballistic missiles, Iran fields a variety of designs of varying accuracy, some based on the Soviet Scud or North Korea’s Nodong. Tehran claims its latest missiles have a CEP of around 65 feet, a suspect claim given the observed inaccuracy of some missiles in the April attack. A CEP of under 100 feet may be enough for damaging sprawling facilities such as airbases, ports and oil refineries. Against a pinpoint target such as a specific building, that might not be sufficient. And to get to that target, these weapons must get past increasingly capable air defense systems like Patriot, Aegis, Arrow and Iron Dome.

Even then, the question remains: Can ballistic missiles win a war? This echoes a debate from World War II, when Allied bomber chiefs argued that bombing German cities would win the war without the need for boots on the ground. Yet even after the Allies dropped 2.7 million tons of bombs in Europe, the Third Reich didn’t surrender until Allied tanks were in the streets of Berlin. Nor did over 7.5 million tons of ordnance compel North Vietnam to cease its war against South Vietnam.

Iranian missiles have not deterred Israel from pursuing its campaigns in Lebanon and Gaza, nor are they likely to. Iran’s 3,000 missiles sound quite impressive. But even if they were all launched at Israel simultaneously, some would malfunction on launch, some would be intercepted, and still others — how many can only be guessed at — would miss their target. In the end, the amount of high-explosive landing on Israeli soil would be less than a single Allied bomber raid in World War II.

The proliferation of ballistic missiles is a danger. Given accurate guidance systems, they can damage vital targets. Given less accuracy, they can serve as terror weapons against cities. But they cannot win a war alone.

Michael Peck is a defense writer whose work has appeared in Forbes, Defense News, Foreign Policy magazine, and other publications. He holds an MA in political science from Rutgers Univ. Follow him on Twitter and LinkedIn.