We are 15 days from the 2024 presidential election. Here’s where things stand.

Harris’ easiest path remains what was once Biden’s Hail Mary strategy before he dropped out of the race: sweep the Great Lakes states and complete the Blue Wall with Nebraska’s blue dot. Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania have voted for the same presidential candidate since 1992. But in a razor-close election, there’s always the possibility that one could fall out.

Most models predict that if Trump wins Pennsylvania again, he will be the next president. If he punches a hole elsewhere, Harris could repair the damage by picking up a state like North Carolina — though the Tar Heel state has only voted for a Democratic presidential nominee once this century (Obama’s 2008 victory). There’s also the possibility of Georgia, a state that you might remember that Biden won by just 11,779 votes in 2020.

The good news for the vice president comes from Nebraska. Like Maine, Nebraska awards some of its Electoral College votes by congressional district. In the overwhelmingly conservative state, there’s a swing district, the Omaha-based Nebraska 2nd. Obama narrowly won it in 2008. Nebraska Republicans then successfully pushed to gerrymander the seat. Amid a broader demographic realignment, Biden easily won the district in 2020. Trump’s best plan for Warren Buffett’s backyard was a last-minute change to the state law. But it didn’t work. It means there is still a possibility that Harris wins the presidency 270 to 268, avoiding the possibility of just the second tie in the nation’s history.

Trump’s team once dreamed of flipping Minnesota, New Hampshire, and perhaps even New Mexico in a rout of Biden. Since Harris’ rise, they have tried to hang on to North Carolina. It’s quite possible Trump could flip Georgia and Arizona, seizing on his increased standing among Black and Latino men. But barring a major surprise, Trump’s best path remains to find a way to flip at least one Great Lakes state.