Trump is taking his message to the heart of some of the bluest cities in the US. Here’s why.

Trump has long tied issues like immigration to the economy, and he’s stepped up that argument this year. During a June debate with President Joe Biden, Trump said migrants were taking “Black jobs” and “Hispanic jobs.” The former president has also pummeled both Biden and Harris over inflation, arguing that the economic picture under his administration was far better for minorities.

Black unemployment under both Biden and Trump hit lows that had not been seen in decades. And the former president is using the issue as a catalyst that could bring more minorities into the GOP fold.

Trump has leaned into his nontraditional political persona as he seeks to chip off Black, Latino, and Asian support from Democrats. In May, he generated the sort of buzz that’d be unheard of for virtually any other Republican as he held a rally in the Bronx. And despite Harris’ near-certain probability of winning New York, the optics of having a rally at Madison Square Garden in a blue citadel just days before the election only adds to Trump’s narrative.

Swing-state voting shifts

In swing states like Georgia, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, Republicans no longer dominate suburban communities as they did in the 1980s, 1990s, and throughout much of the 2000s.

In 2020, Biden performed strongly in inner-ring suburbs outside Atlanta, Detroit, and Philadelphia, respectively, while also winning by landslides in the actual city centers. Such margins allowed Biden to overcome Trump’s advantage in most rural counties in each state.

These populous metropolitan areas contain a significant share of the vote needed to win statewide, and with Republicans continuing to falter with suburban voters in the Trump era, the former president will need to make up the votes elsewhere.

In 2020, Biden won 66% of urban voters, compared to Trump’s 33% support, according to the Pew Research Center. Among suburban voters, Biden had a 54% to 43% advantage over Trump.

Trump’s focus on urban rallies gives the GOP added visibility in areas where they generally haven’t even bothered to show up.

However, it also reflects the potential long-term shifts in voting patterns that could occur in the 2024 election. If Trump grows his support among minority males, then Republicans will hail his strategy. Still, it may not be enough to defeat Harris, as the presidential race remains as close as ever.