Russia’s struggle to kick the Ukrainians out is likely only going to get tougher

Ukraine has been able to slow the Russian advance through steps like blowing up bridges critical for moving in troops, weapons, and ammunition.

Still, Russia has taken back 46% of what Ukraine once held in Kursk, the US-based Institute for the Study of War said in an update earlier this month, citing visual evidence.

A harder fight for Russia

Ukrainian forces have options for defending and moving in Kursk that typically only Russian soldiers fighting in Ukraine have had in this war.

They have flexibility. Unlike at home, where Ukraine fights to defend all of its territory, inside Russia, it can be more mobile and strategically give up some land to better defend the areas it can really hold or wants to more.

Michael Bohnert, a warfare expert at RAND Corporation, told BI Ukraine doesn’t have to defend Russian cities. “You just fight where it’s advantageous and pull back when it’s not. And that’s a really efficient way of fighting,” he said.

It is not clear how much of the territory that Russia took back was deliberately given up by Ukraine, but experts say they never expected Ukraine to hold all of the territory that it it seized.

“While someone might look at the recent advances and say they’re big, I would also say it’s because Ukraine just took so much territory, more than they even intended to defend,” Alberque said.

“So it’s very easy now for Ukraine to do some sort of fighting retreats and seed territory that they could never legitimately hold,” he explained.

Russia’s initial reaction to Ukraine’s unexpected incursion was slow and messy. Russian President Vladimir Putin froze at first but eventually put the FSB — Russia’s security and intelligence agency — in charge of a complicated response involving other groups.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said his forces took territory in Kursk because it could help it negotiate with Russia and create a buffer zone along Ukraine’s border. Warfare experts said Ukraine was likely trying to also boost the morale of their troops and to send a message to Western allies whose support was waning.

The Kursk incursion also gives Ukraine a chance to bleed the Russians and draw some Russian forces away from the front lines in Ukraine. But Zelenskyy said Ukraine’s plan was not to hold the territory forever.

Savill said the Kursk invasion has “value” by helping Ukraine’s efforts in its own country and may have prevented more Russian troops from going into Ukraine through the Kursk region

But he said it has not been “a hammer blow to the Russian war effort,” and Russia taking back some territory makes it less effective for Ukraine as a bargaining chip.

It did manage to shake up the war for the first time in months and allow Ukraine to finally regain the initiative in at least one sector of the conflict.

But given the unknowns about each side’s next steps and the resources they are willing to commit, Savill said that ultimately, “it might take weeks or months to work out the value.”