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Just two months ago, it appeared that Trump was on pace to win Arizona and potentially flip Nevada — a Democratic-leaning swing state that last backed a GOP presidential nominee in 2004. And his heavy focus on border security was a big part of his resonance with his base and a slice of voters who had grown disenchanted with Biden on immigration and the economy.
But the Cook Political Report recently shifted both Arizona and Nevada (as well as Georgia) from the “lean Republican” category back to the “tossup” column.
The movement comes off the strength of Harris’ campaign, as she has not only firmed up Democratic base support but made inroads with independents and undecided voters.
As of July, registered independents — or voters classified as “other” — make up nearly 34% of Arizona’s electorate. Republicans make up 35% of the electorate, while Democrats have a 29% share.
While Trump has enduring appeal with the Republican base, he can’t win based on those votes alone.
Harris’ campaign has already begun attacking Trump over his opposition to a bipartisan border security bill that was backed by Biden but largely abandoned by Republicans after the ex-president warned GOP lawmakers to oppose the measure.
Trump’s position has the potential to move independents who want an immigration solution and believe that Harris might take different approaches than Biden on the issue.
For Harris, remaining competitive in Arizona gives her multiple pathways to win in the fall. She is clearly eyeing the state’s 11 electoral votes, but she can still win the election without it.
However, for Trump, a Harris win in Arizona would be a huge blow in his attempts to win a second term. Biden’s 2020 victories in Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada — as well as his wins in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin — effectively cut off Trump’s path to victory that year.
Should Harris neutralize the border security issue — a feat that seemed unimaginable when Biden was still the presumptive nominee — it’ll give her a major opening to win Arizona.