A secretive Russian submarine unit could sabotage the subsea network of cables that powers the internet

There is already evidence that Russian units may have tampered with undersea cables, with experts saying that Russian units likely played a role in the disappearance of miles of the cables near Lofoten off the coast of Norway in 2021.

Kaushal said that if a direct conflict breaks out between Russia and a NATO state, GUGI would likely first seek to sever military cables, specifically those enabling the tracking of Russian military submarines.

But it could also menace the cables civilian communications depend on as a “useful means of calibrated coercion,” he said.

Though the cables are exposed to damage in storms or can be accidentally damaged by anchors, an act of calculated sabotage would cause damage on a different scale.

“Recovering from a deliberate sabotage campaign would take time,” Mark Cancian, an analyst with the CSIS think tank in Washington, DC, told BI.

NATO steps up patrols

In a recent report, experts at the CSIS called on countries to intensify efforts to safeguard the infrastructure, warning that “without coordinated international efforts to safeguard these cables, the risks of disruption, espionage, and economic instability will continue to grow.”

The NATO official said that the alliance had “stepped up naval patrols near undersea infrastructure” and said that “NATO’s North Atlantic Council has stated clearly that any deliberate attack against Allies’ critical infrastructure will be met with a united and determined response.”

But Kaushal said that because no Western nations were officially at war with Russia, it was unclear what could be done beyond monitoring the activity of Russian vessels such as GUGI’s near sensitive undersea cables.

“What is more challenging is the question of what rules of engagement exist when suspicious activity is occurring on international waters in peacetime when there is no legal basis to deny Russian platforms access,” he said.