Will Caroline Ellison get jail time for her role in the $11 billion FTX fraud scheme? Here’s what the judge must weigh.

Prosecutors, in their sentencing letter, praised Ellison for helping them identify the key documents that would help their case against Bankman-Fried, and for cooperating with civil investigations from the Securities Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. John J. Ray III, who took over FTX as CEO to sort through its smoldering ruins during the bankruptcy process, also wrote a letter to the court praising her cooperation.

“Ellison stood out not only for the speed of her cooperation, but for her consistent candor beginning in her very first meeting with the Government,” prosecutors wrote. “She accepted full responsibility from her very first proffer and did not minimize or shift blame.”

In her sentencing submission, Ellison’s lawyers wrote that she had been living a quiet life since the trial, working on a novel and helping her parents — both economists affiliated with MIT — with a math textbook. In emotional letters, her parents and friends recounted a moment when she comforted a close friend whose father had killed himself.

Kaplan previously gave a 7½-year sentence to Ryan Salame, an FTX executive who pleaded guilty to charges against him but who was not a cooperating witness in Bankman-Fried’s trial. The sentence was longer than what prosecutors recommended, and Kaplan is now considering whether to revoke Salame’s guilty plea, accusing him of lying under oath in an earlier court proceeding.

Ellison’s sentence will likely give a preview of the sentences for Gary Wang and Nishad Singh, two former FTX executives who also pleaded guilty to charges against them and testified against Bankman-Fried at trial. Their respective sentencing hearings are scheduled for later in the fall.

“This sentence will set the market,” Naftalis told BI.

Ellison’s lawyers pointed out that Kaplan praised Ellison’s testimony during Bankman-Fried’s sentencing hearing, finding it helpful for understanding his motivations. (Bankman-Fried is appealing his conviction and sentence.)

Because the Bankman-Fried case went to trial, Kaplan has a lot of information at his disposal when deciding Ellison’s sentence. The judge listened to her testimony and observed her courtroom demeanor. It’s different than a case where everyone pleads guilty and the judge has a smaller court to use in their sentence, Krissoff observed.

“He has so much input already into what the sentence should be,” Krissoff said. “You have an uber-informed judge at this point.”