BRYAN R. SMITH
The ‘sleeper issue’
The intensifying conflict between Israel and Iran raises foreign policy concerns, and the devastation of Hurricane Helene has left large swaths of the American Southeast destroyed. But it’s a brewing economic crisis from a dockworkers strike that stands to really disrupt the presidential race, Jones, the pollster, said.
“The sleeper issue that could end up making the most difference is the dockworkers strike, and that’s because the No. 1 issue that Americans say when they talk to pollsters is the economy,” he told BI.
The strike will inevitably lead to complications with the nation’s supply chain, which, in turn, could eventually lead to inflation — an outcome that would seriously hurt Harris, he said.
Logistics experts told BI that a strike lasting a week or two would create backlogs but minimal widespread economic costs. Anything longer, however, would result in upward price pressures and shortages, especially at the grocery store.
And the affected ports are already feeling the impact: more container vessels are anchored than usual, and analysts at JPMorgan estimate the shutdowns could cost $5 billion a day.
“There’s a lot of evidence that when people are unhappy with the economy, they blame the incumbent presidential party,” Jones told BI.
Republicans typically have the upper hand on economic matters among voters, but there is increasing evidence that Harris’ policies on the matter are starting to sway Americans.
And while the dockworker strike could spell trouble for Harris, it’s also the only crisis of the three that has any real chance of ending before election day, Adkins said.
The war in the Middle East will likely worsen before it gets better, and the hurricane cleanup could take years. But the longshoremen and ports could reach a deal before voters head to the polls, Adkins said.
Jones said that the strike ending could give Harris an opportunity to celebrate; he said he could imagine a photo of her shaking hands with smiling dockworkers.
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Most voters have already decided
Regardless of how the current crises evolve in the coming weeks, the presidential election is ultimately set to be decided by a small number of voters in a small number of states.
The country’s intense partisanship also means external events just don’t sway voters as much as they used to, Jones said.
“I think at the presidential level right now, probably 19 out of 20 people have already made up their mind,” Adkins said.
In 2020, Biden won the election thanks to fewer than 45,000 votes in three key states, Arizona, Georgia, and Wisconsin.
Given how close past presidential races have been, if even a few thousand voters in key districts find themselves energized by war in the Middle East, angered by the impact of the dockworkers strike, or hurt by Helene, the crises could move the needle come November.
What matters most now is how the candidates’ messaging lands with specific communities impacted by these crises, Loge said. While those in the swing states of North Carolina and Georgia may be most focused on hurricane cleanup, he said voters in must-win Michigan might be more concerned with the ongoing violence overseas.
The Biden-Harris administration would be wise to project calm competence in the weeks ahead, according to Loge. Meanwhile, he said he expects the Trump campaign to continue its messaging promoting Trump as the candidate of strength and Harris as the candidate of weakness.
Which message voters respond to most will become clear on Election Day.