Iran’s massive missile strike on Israel is just a fraction of what China could do

In the event of a conflict, which military leaders do not see as imminent or inevitable but consider a growing possibility, American bases and assets positioned across the region could face bombardment on a level not seen before. Should China and the US go to war, possibly over a potential Chinese invasion or takeover of Taiwan or some other point of tension, the US could find itself under heavy fire involving China’s vast arsenal of ballistic missiles.

Compared to what Iran just did to Israel, a Chinese missile strike would likely be far larger and more lethal, experts said.

“Although Russia’s missile activity in Ukraine is certainly a competitor, Iran has this year carried out what are quite probably the two largest missile attacks in a single day. Both were structured and complex attacks, designed to complicate the task of air defenders,” Tom Karako, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies and the director of the Missile Defense Project there, told Business Insider.

“What China would do, however, could be an order of magnitude worse than anything we’ve seen so far in the Middle East.”

A massive missile strike

The ability of Israel’s air defenses, along with assistance from the US and others, to apparently intercept a majority of the missiles highlights the value of air defenses.

That air-defense assets, from ground-based interceptors to aircraft to warships, were able to blunt such a massive missile attack speaks to the importance of these systems, which have more than proven their worth in other conflicts and would likely be needed in far greater numbers in a high-end future fight.

Karako said that recent battles have been “remarkable demonstrations of both operational finesse and stunning technical capability of US and Israeli missile defenses. While no weapon system is perfect, these are some impressive engagement records.” China would, however, present a greater challenge.

The differences between Iran’s attack and a potential Chinese missile strike are probably best understood through scale, sophistication, and intent.

A Chinese missile strike “could be a much larger scale with much more sophisticated sequencing and capabilities across a much larger area and potentially with far less warning,” Thomas Shugart, an adjunct senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security think tank and former US naval officer, said.

The US and its allies in the Western Pacific have a mix of air defenses in place, such as Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) batteries, Patriot batteries, and Aegis-equipped warships. And efforts are ongoing to boost those defenses. The US and Japan agreed to team up earlier this year to develop a missile defense system that can effectively intercept hypersonic weapons.

But more is likely needed considering the threat. A former commander of what was previously Pacific Command told BI earlier this year that one of the best ways to counter PLARF would be to make “robust” air and missile defenses a reality this decade.