Here are the best and worst-case scenarios for Google in its battle with the DOJ

A final verdict may still be months, if not years, away. Google, which called the DOJ’s proposals “radical,” said it plans to appeal the decision, potentially putting a stay on any remedies that Judge Amit Mehta decides on. Dan Morgan, senior portfolio manager at Synovus, told Business Insider he thinks it could be as long as three to four years before Google is made to do anything.

The DOJ tries to level the search competition

Analysts now see blocking Google’s default search agreements as the bare minimum — and likely not enough to level the playing field in the way the DOJ asks.

The same goes for implementing a “choice screen” to let users decide their search engine the first time they boot up their device. Google introduced that feature for Android users in the European Union after an antitrust ruling by regulators in 2018, but it has done little to dent Google’s search market share in Europe.

The DOJ is also considering cracking open Google’s search index and forcing it to share data, including the nitty-gritty of how Google ranks website quality. Google watchers see this scenario as increasingly likely. The DOJ said this could include the models used for Google’s AI Search features.

It also suggested it may request Google share with advertisers data around search text ads auction and ad monetization — and that actions against Google’s ad products, such as Performance Max, are not off the table.

A breakup is unlikely

The most dramatic outcome would be breaking up Google. The analysts BI spoke to consider a total divestiture of Chrome, Android, or Play unlikely, though not impossible.

“The doomsday scenario of a total break-up like AT&T in the 1980’s does not seem likely,” Morgan told BI.

A structural breakup is “an unlikely outcome,” and any remedies will most likely focus on search distribution, Dan Ives, managing director and senior analyst at Wedbush, wrote in a note this week.

The AI risk for Google

As the DOJ has made clear, it wants its remedies to not just punish Google for its previous sins, but to prevent Google from using its Search monopoly to corner the AI market.

Google has spent the last two years scrambling to reassert itself as the leader in AI against encroaching rivals such as OpenAI. Forcing Google to share data and targeting some of its AI products could blunt its edge in the coming AI battle.

Speaking at The Information’s Women in Tech, Media, and Finance conference this week, Google’s search lead, Liz Reid, acknowledged that data gives Google its advantage in both search and AI.

“We have really great data beyond the web on things like products and maps and sports data,” she said.

Sunshine CEO and former Google executive Marissa Mayer later emphasized the point, saying, “Google has all the data.”

The DOJ has said it’s also weighing a proposal that websites can opt out of Google’s AI training and from appearing in AI search results altogether.

“In our view, the last thing Google needs right now in the broader AI battle is having to fight with one hand tied behind their backs by regulators,” wrote Bernstein analysts in their note published Wednesday.

It’s another reason Google will think hard about a way to appease the DOJ. The company can propose its own remedies by December 20, and it will want to do everything it can to avoid a worst-case scenario.

“Google should be able to put together a proposal that can meet the DOJ’s concerns,” said Morgan.

Are you a current or former Google employee? Got a tip? You can contact this reporter securely on Signal at hughlangley.01 or email at hlangley@businessinsider.com.