But Kastehelmi said that in the long run, Russia will “most likely” be able to adapt to Ukraine’s long-range strikes.
“The Russians will, of course, react and adapt — if they’re able to switch to a safer way of storing ammo, for example, by decentralizing their system, creating a heavy impact will be more difficult,” he said.
And if Ukraine wants to continue these strikes, it will have to produce long-range drones or missiles “relatively efficiently” and “with decent costs,” he said.
Even then, Russia may be able to ramp up its air-defense capabilities near such sites in a way that could put a dent in Ukraine’s long-range attacks.
“I doubt the Ukrainians are able to produce so many long-range missiles or drones that it could turn the tide of the war,” Kastehelmi added.