China Coast Guard via Weibo/Handout via REUTERS
Poling described these as “the most violent months in the South China Sea since 1988,” and added that the Philippines’ “natural” response would be to seek help from its treaty ally, the US.
Under a Mutual Defense Treaty signed in 1951, the US must come to the Philippines’ aid in the event of an armed attack — something China has carefully avoided by conducting gray-zone operations.
In an interview with CBS News 60 Minutes last month, Philippine Secretary of National Defense Gilberto Teodoro said that there were ongoing discussions about what scenarios would prompt the US to get involved.
Meanwhile, according to Poling, China’s official position is that everything the Philippines does is because the US made it do it.
“That’s one of the things that makes this so hard to deescalate,” he said.
A war with China in the South China Sea is a prospect the US would likely want to avoid at all costs, given the ongoing conflicts raging in Ukraine and the Middle East.
“But there’s no world in which the US can sit on the sidelines, watch China potentially kill Filipinos in Philippine waters, and do nothing,” Poling added.