Russia weighs fighter jet and missile deals that would expand Iran’s military power

Such deliveries could complicate Israeli or US airstrikes against Tehran. After Iran first directly attacked Israel in April with a drone and missile barrage, Israel responded by destroying the radar of one of Iran’s S-300PMU-2s, Iran’s most advanced air defense system acquired from Russia and the S-400’s predecessor.

Mardasov does not believe Moscow will supply Tehran with the more advanced S-400, pointing out that Russia’s own air defenses are strained from its war on Ukraine. Russia needs all the air defenses it can muster to defend its ammo depots from waves of Ukrainian drone attacks and enable its air force to provide supporting strikes for its troops in Ukraine.

Even if Russia decided to supply Iran with the S-400, the training program would take around five months, meaning Iran would not get them online until next spring at the earliest.

A P-800 missile deal may be especially provocative. Russia is reportedly discussing supplying this anti-ship cruise missile to the Houthis. The P-800 boasts an 186-mile range and can skim the sea’s surface en route. They are more advanced than other anti-ship missiles in the rebel group’s arsenal, and would fuel their dangerous attacks on commercial ships and the US-led coalition defending them. Russian intelligence operatives have reportedly advised the Houthis in their attacks against commercial ships.

Iran is reportedly brokering the deal, while Yemen’s northern neighbor Saudi Arabia and the United States oppose it. Russian President Vladimir Putin has already suggested Russia might arm Western adversaries under certain circumstances.

“As for the anti-ship missiles, I think that if the talks between Moscow and the Houthis were really about supplying missiles, they were of a general nature,” Mardasov said. “Although I think it was more a deliberate leak involving Russian intelligence services to back up Putin’s words about possibly arming America’s adversaries.”

The Russian president warned in June that Moscow could arm enemies of the West in response to their arming Ukraine and authorizing Kyiv to use Western munitions for limited strikes inside Russia, affirming that “we reserve the right to act the same way.”

The Russia analyst is skeptical that any direct transfer will take place, noting that it could put Chinese-owned tankers at risk. A Houthi missile already hit the Chinese-owned MV Huang Pu tanker, which was flying a Panamanian flag, earlier this year.

“In addition, such a deliberate delivery of missiles would greatly irritate Arab countries, which are important partners for Moscow in the current sanctions environment,” Mardasov said.

Nevertheless, he sees a scenario where these missiles could find their way to the Houthis “allegedly by accident via Syria,” if the US and its allies were to authorize Ukraine to use Western-made ATACMS missiles against Russia.

Such a scenario already appears to have happened with Iran’s main militia proxy, Hezbollah in Lebanon, which acquired the export variant of the P-800, the Yakhont, in Syria under unclear circumstances.