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In such a scenario, she wouldn’t need to win Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, or North Carolina to secure victory. However, Harris isn’t pursuing a singular electoral strategy and is working hard to win the states across the board.
But the fact remains that the “Blue wall” states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin are states that Democrats dearly want to hold onto this year. All three states have voted for the same presidential candidate in tandem since 1992.
Harris in recent weeks has campaigned with former Republican congresswoman Liz Cheney, whose resistance to Trump’s election claims and work on the Jan. 6, 2021, committee have endeared her to many independents and voters who remain on the fence about the former president. It’s why Cheney has already joined Harris on the campaign trail in Michigan and Wisconsin, where the pair have emphasized issues pertaining to the preservation of democracy.
The vice president’s two-and-three point leads in Michigan and Wisconsin, respectively, are within the margins of error. And both campaigns know this race will likely be decided by the slimmest of margins, with every attainable voter wielding immense power in a region where the economy and abortion rights will also play critical roles in the race.
Warning signs in the Sun Belt
Trump is looking to flip Arizona and Georgia, states that he won in 2016 but lost to now-President Joe Biden in 2020. And he’s campaigning to keep North Carolina in his column and potentially become the first Republican presidential nominee to win Nevada since George W. Bush won it in 2004.
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The former president has repeatedly sought to link Harris to Biden, whose unpopularity is tied in part to the negative feelings that many voters have regarding issues like inflation and housing affordability.
While Trump appeared to be cruising to a sweep of the Sun Belt swing states based on polling in the months before Biden exited the presidential race, Harris reversed Biden’s slide and has made the region’s battlegrounds a real contest.
But warning signs remain for both candidates.
Even with Biden’s electoral gains in 2020, states like Arizona and Georgia had long been Republican strongholds, and a more conventional Republican like former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley likely wouldn’t struggling with moderate Republicans in the way that Trump has been throughout his campaign. It’s a reason why the suburbs of Phoenix and Atlanta remain vote-rich battlegrounds; Harris has sought to court the sort of moderate voters who in the past backed Republican presidential candidates like Bush and 2012 GOP presidential nominee Mitt Romney.
The latest Atlanta Journal-Constitution poll of the presidential race in Georgia showed Trump ahead 47% to 43%, among likely voters, with eight percent of respondents still undecided. It’s a positive sign for Trump, who has campaigned extensively throughout the state.
In the poll, Harris is earning the support from roughly 74% of Black voters, a robust figure. But it’s well below the 88% support that Biden received from Black voters in Georgia four years ago. And the poll also showed that nearly 18% of Black voters remained undecided, in a state where Black voters could make up roughly 30% of the electorate or more.
Also, despite Trump’s lead in the survey, he only had a two-point advantage with voters aged 65 and older, a group that’s generally been strong for him. Harris’ competitiveness with Trump among older voters is a reminder that Georgia may have been a conservative bastion in the past but it’s now highly competitive.