If South Korea decides to get involved in Ukraine, it has powerful options

South Korea hesitates

Significant obstacles stand in the way of South Korea arming Ukraine, though. Not least is South Korea’s long-standing ban on sending military assistance to foreign countries at war.

Chan said South Korea’s President Yoon Suk-yeol was domestically unpopular and would encounter difficulties repealing the law via South Korea’s center-left-dominated National Assembly.

“North Korea’s actions would have to present a clearer and more immediate threat to South Korea’s national security before we would expect the National Assembly to authorize export of weapons to Ukraine,” he said.

Another factor is South Korea’s desire to not entirely destroy its relationship with Russia, despite its growing fears about the Kremlin empowering North Korea and emboldening its leader Kim Jong Un, said Chain and Kim, the analysts.

In return for North Korean shells and military support in Ukraine, the Kremlin has sought to stymie UN inspections of North Korea’s nuclear program and could be prepared to hand it sophisticated military technology.

Entrapment dilemma

Chan said Yoon was figuring out the best way to deter Russia.

“Seoul believes that the threat to provide weapons gives it more leverage over Moscow than it would have if South Korea were to begin providing weapons directly,” he said.

Future diplomatic and trade ties are another reason South Korea is hesitating to act — as well as the prospect of being pulled further into the Ukraine war than it intends.

“There is a possibility South Korea could be shooting at Russians and/or North Koreans, and it would internationalize and widen the war further,” Sean McFate, a strategy professor at Georgetown University, told BI.

“Worst case is it sparks a nuclear war on the Korean peninsula that drags the US and China into armed conflict.”

But the escalating alliance between Russia and North Korea may soon reach a point where South Korea feels it needs to act.

Because of Russia’s increasing reliance on North Korea, Kim finds himself in a powerful position to negotiate sophisticated technology in return.

Such an exchange, said Chan, could be the red line that compels South Korea to get involved in the Ukraine war and send weapons.

Although it has the military power to enable Ukraine to hurt Russia, it’s an escalation that comes with real risks.

As Ellen Kim put it: “North Korea’s involvement dramatically raises the risk of entrapment for South Korea in the war.”