What Trump’s own words tell us about what a White House win could mean for Ukraine

The Republican nominee has touted his “very good relationship” with both Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. He has said the war wouldn’t have happened under his watch and has suggested that he could broker a deal between Kyiv and Moscow to end the conflict.

“I think it’s in the US’ best interest to get this war finished and just get it done. All right. Negotiate a deal,” he said during the presidential debate in September.

He said the conflict was “dying to be settled” and that he could resolve it even before taking office. “What I’ll do is I’ll speak to one, I’ll speak to the other, and I’ll get them together,” he said. Trump has previously said he could end the conflict in less than 24 hours.

“I’ll get it done. I’ll get it negotiated, I’ll get out. We gotta get out,” he told a crowd in Georgia last month.

A real possibility under a second Trump administration is that US support to Ukraine decreases or ends.

The former President has regularly criticized the Biden administration for sending billions of dollars in security aid to Kyiv, calling Zelenskyy in a recent podcast interview “one of the greatest salesmen I’ve ever seen.”

“Who else got that kind of money in history? There’s never been,” he said. “That doesn’t mean I don’t want to help him because I feel very badly for those people. But he should never have let that war start. That war’s a loser.”

Trump’s running mate, JD Vance, has been vocal against US support for Ukraine. He’s said he doesn’t care what happens “one way or another.”

It’s also possible Trump decides to continue aid — with conditions — or even increase support for Ukraine if he wins the election. In an interview with The Wall Street Journal last week, Trump said he previously threatened the Russian president over Ukraine.

“Vladimir, if you go after Ukraine, I am going to hit you so hard, you’re not even going to believe it. I’m going to hit you right in the middle of fricking Moscow,” Trump said he told Putin. “We’re friends. I don’t want to do it, but I have no choice.”

But Trump has also noted Russia’s willingness to fight and nuclear capabilities.

Trump hasn’t said whether he wants Ukraine to win. Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic presidential candidate, hasn’t either, though she has signaled a willingness to continue support for Ukraine. During the debate, Harris said Putin is a “a dictator who would eat” Trump “for lunch.” She also said that “if Donald Trump were president, Putin would be sitting in Kyiv right now.”

And Ukraine isn’t the sole concern with a Trump win. He has bashed NATO allies for not contributing their fair share, questioned US involvement, and suggested earlier this year that he would let Russia do “whatever the hell” it wants to allies not paying enough.

“Any suggestion that allies will not defend each other undermines all of our security,” former NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg said in response to Trump’s comments, “including that of the US.”

Ukraine has made similar points, highlighting that it is fighting a war so the West doesn’t have to and thus contributing to its security.

The election comes as Ukraine holds territory inside Russia and as the Russians continue to advance in Ukraine. Both sides are pushing their defense industrial bases to churn out weapons while also turning to others for support. Winter is on its way, though, and that could slow combat activity.