Iran is weighing how to respond to Israel’s attack. Here’s what may happen next.

Israel could strike again

Voller said Iran may be deterred from launching a direct counterattack because of Israel’s track record and “proven capability of reaching Iranian sensitive targets.”

He added that Israel’s targeting of Iran’s military sites, including its air defense system, would allow it to launch further air attacks if Iran were to escalate the conflict.

Israel is also one of the world’s top military spenders as a share of GDP, and it receives large amounts of military aid from the US to maintain what it calls a “qualitative military edge” over neighboring countries.

And recent events will likely have reinforced to Iran’s leaders that the country is “overmatched militarily,” Panikoff said, “which, for a regime that prioritizes stability above all else, makes entering into a full-scale war an illogical choice.”

The Israeli military has said it would be “obligated to respond” if Iran attacked again.

Ellie Geranmayeh, the deputy head of the Middle East and North Africa program at the European Council on Foreign Relations, told The Times that further attacks from Israel shouldn’t be ruled out, especially after the US election in November.

“There will be a sigh of relief across Iran and the region that the US managed to restrain Netanyahu for now,” Geranmayeh said, referencing Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

“But the fear is that this is a temporary restraint leading up to the US elections. The ‘lame duck’ phase ahead could be a moment where we see renewed Israeli attacks inside Iran — as a perceived golden window to further deplete Iranian capabilities,” she added.