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- China last week said it was “not aware” of North Korean troops being sent to Russia.
- Its muted response may undercut its efforts to improve trade with the EU, experts said.
- Not everyone agrees that trade threats will impact China’s actions.
With North Korean forces believed to be moving toward Russia’s front lines, fears are growing that the Ukraine war is about to enter a new phase.
Around 3,000 North Korean soldiers arrived in Russia last week, according to US, South Korean, and Ukrainian intelligence.
The reports signaled a deepening military alliance between Russia and North Korea — an alliance that has been met with a muted response from China.
China’s foreign affairs ministry last week said it was “not aware of the relevant situation.”
The bland statement may have been aimed at balancing its influence over North Korea and Russia with its relationship with Ukraine’s Western allies.
Some experts believe such a move could come at a cost.
A threat to trade
“Unless China distances itself more explicitly from North Korea-Russia cooperation, the West’s perception of China as an enabler in the Ukraine war and a growing geopolitical threat will only harden,” said a recent report by the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR).
“This could further undercut Beijing’s efforts to improve its trading relationships with the European Union (EU). Just weeks ago, the EU signaled its growing ire with China, agreeing to impose hefty tariffs on electric vehicles.”
China is the EU’s second-largest trading partner for goods after the US, with bilateral trade reaching $799 billion in 2023. However, EU-China relations have become increasingly strained in recent years.
Earlier this month, the EU voted to impose tariffs on Chinese EV manufacturers in a bid to protect its automotive industry from what some politicians believe are unfairly subsidized Chinese electric vehicles.
As BI previously reported, the move means Chinese EV makers will be subject to a maximum 35.3% tariff on their vehicles, in addition to an existing 10% levy.
That could impact plans to revive China’s economy, which has been dragged by factors including youth unemployment, a housing crisis, and deflation. Earlier this month, the World Bank forecast that China’s economic growth would slow to 4.3% next year, down from a forecast of 4.8% for 2024.
“Beijing would see little benefit to establishing a more formal trilateral alliance because being too closely linked to Russian and North Korean provocative behavior could trigger secondary sanctions against China,” wrote Bruce Klingner, a Senior Research Fellow, in an April report for the Heritage Foundation.
China’s balancing act
Analysts believe China is remaining publicly impartial in a bid to save its reputation on an international stage while maintaining its ties with North Korea and Russia.
China has provided Russia with diplomatic and economic support as it has faced sanctions over its invasion. The US has said China is also giving Russia increased support for its weapons industry.
For North Korea, China has long been its most important ally, providing trade, diplomatic support, and military aid to Kim Jong Un. China and North Korea’s mutual aid and cooperation treaty from 1961 is the only existing defense treaty that China has with any country.
“Declining to distance itself publicly would likely entrench the West’s assessment that China seeks to sustain Russia’s warfighting capacity,” Ali Wyne, a senior Eurasia advisor at the Crisis Group think tank, told Business Insider.
“Distancing itself publicly, however, could strain China’s ties with its alleged ‘no limits’ partner as well as its only treaty ally.”
Wyne added that North Korea’s reported decision to deploy troops on Russia’s behalf makes this balancing act harder for China to sustain — and for the US and the EU to accept.
Not everyone agrees, however.
Sari Arho Havrén, an associate fellow at the UK’s Royal United Services Institute, previously told BI that North Korea and Russia would not have moved into such a close alliance without China’s blessing.
She doesn’t believe that the threat of losing partial access to EU trade will cause China to speak more vocally against North Korea and Russia.
“This doesn’t seem to be the case considering the amount of European leaders queuing up to Beijing with business delegations,” she said.
“In addition, the return of Trump to the White House might just drop Europe into China’s lap. I don’t see how the EU single market and disunited member states could potentially be enough for China to distance itself, particularly from Russia.”
Ann Marie Dailey, a policy researcher at RAND, also isn’t convinced that China is threatened by sanctions.
“The longer this conflict goes on, the more difficult it will be for ministers and heads of state to make a link between China supporting Russia, Russia hurting Ukraine and therefore needing to endure economic hardship due to sanctions against China,” she said.