Why North Korea would want to go to war for Russia

Ties between Russia and North Korea entered a new phase earlier this year when Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un signed a new mutual defense agreement during a summit in Pyongyang.

The defense pact, which the Russian State Duma ratified last Thursday, states that the signatories will help one another in the event of an armed attack. The moment marks the closest North Korean-Russian relations since the Cold War.

Putin and Kim have been strengthening their relationship throughout the Ukraine war, meeting last fall to discuss an arms deal agreement that ultimately saw North Korea provide ammunition and weapons to Russia. That event followed earlier interactions for similar purposes.

That growing partnership between Russia and North Korea, countries aligned in their position against the US-led liberal world order, during this war has brought things to their present state.

What kind of support is Russia getting?

It’s unclear what exactly is driving North Korea to become increasingly involved in the war. “We don’t have a good sense of that,” White House National Security Council spokesperson Kirby told reporters last week. “But that’s what’s so concerning to us.”

Kim is in a strong position to demand food, petroleum products, or even military technology, all of which analysts have identified as possibilities. By sending troops instead of just weapons and ammunition, Pyongyang is paying a very high price for whatever it’s getting in return, which is telling in its own way.

Technologies for nuclear-powered submarines, which North Korea wants, could be a big ask. North Korea also has an aging fighter jet fleet it wants to upgrade and a desire for advanced satellite technologies. It could seek to improve its defense industrial base as well.

But North Korea’s nuclear weapons and missile programs are the crowned jewels. In June, when the focus was solely on weapons and ammo, US Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell said any discussions about what North Korea would get from Russia would likely involve “nuclear or long-range missile-development plans.”

North Korea also gets a certain amount of leverage against the US and its allies through its close ties to Russia, and through its involvement in the Ukraine war, its military stands to gain combat experience and performance data on its weapons.

How are friends and foes reacting?

Kim’s decision to send North Korean troops to support Russia’s war raised a number of alarms. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin called this a “very serious issue.”

The Biden administration would “continue to surge security assistance” to Kyiv and was discussing “the right next steps” with allies and partners, Kirby said. He noted the US would be communicating with China on the issue, too.

Publicly, China has remained mum, with a Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson saying last week that Beijing “does not have information” on the deployment and would continue to push for deescalation in the conflict. Beijing has often aligned with Russia and North Korea; Western officials have accused China of also giving military aid to Russia in return for certain technologies and information. 

North Korea’s involvement in the Ukraine war is perhaps most concerning for South Korea. The country’s spy agency reported that Kim promised around 10,000 troops to Russia and that those forces have been training in Russia since September.

The development has prompted Seoul’s leadership to reconsider its long-standing ban on directly providing weapons to a country in conflict. South Korea previously supported Ukraine through a loophole, sending ammunition via allies and partners, including the US. But last week, senior South Korean officials indicated that a change in policy was under consideration. 

Such a move would bring both Koreas deeper into the conflict and risk raising tensions at an already fraught time on the peninsula.